Valued at a market cap of $8.9 billion, Dallas, Texas-based Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) is a leading provider of online dating products, operating a diverse portfolio of over 45 brands, including Tinder, Match.com, Hinge, and OkCupid. With services available in more than 40 languages, the company connects millions of users worldwide through innovative matchmaking technology.

Shares of the online dating app company have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MTCH has declined 2.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 21.8%. However, shares of MTCH are up 11.5% on a YTD basis, outpacing SPX’s 2.7% gain.

Focusing more closely, Match Group has also lagged behind the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF Fund’s (XLC) 29.8% gain over the past 52 weeks. But, the stock has outperformed XLC’s 6.9% YTD return. 

Match Group posted mixed Q4 2024 earnings results on Feb. 4. While Q4 revenue of $860.2 million beat expectations, adjusted EPS of $0.82 fell short of the consensus. Also, its Q1 2025 revenue forecast of $820 million - $830 million and full-year guidance of $3.4 billion - $3.5 billion, both fell below the consensus. Additionally, Match Group cited foreign exchange headwinds and the exit from some live-streaming services. The stock decline was further driven by a 4% drop in total paying users to 14.6 million, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of declines.

For fiscal 2024, which ended in December, MTCH reported EPS of $2.02. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It consistently surpassed consensus estimates in the last four quarters. the consensus estimates in the last four quarters. 

Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 10 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and 14 “Holds.”

This configuration is less bullish than three months ago, with 15 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.

On Feb. 4, Wolfe Research reiterated its “Outperform” rating on MTCH and set a price target of $40. 

As of writing, MTCH is trading below the mean price target of $36.56. The Street-high price target of $53 implies a potential upside of 45.3% from the current price levels.