Headquartered in Houston, Texas, ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies, commanding a market cap of $113.3 billion. The company is focused on the responsible extraction, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Unlike integrated oil companies, ConocoPhillips operates exclusively in the upstream segment of the energy industry.

COP shares have substantially underperformed the broader market over the past year, falling 9.1% over the past 52 weeks and rising 1.4% in 2025.  Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has soared 21.8% over the past year and a 2.7% rise in 2025.

Narrowing the focus, ConocoPhillips also underperformed the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF’s (XOP) 4.9% gains over the past 52 weeks and is up 3.6% on a YTD basis.

While ConocoPhillips has suffered over the past year, it has set itself up for a strong 2025 thanks to its strategic acquisition of Marathon Oil in late November.

COP shares jumped 6.4% after releasing its Q3 earnings release on Oct. 31. It posted revenue of $13.6 billion, down from $14.9 billion a year earlier, with earnings dropping to $2.1 billion ($1.76 per share) from $2.8 billion ($2.32 per share). The decline was driven by a 10% year-over-year decrease in average realized prices, primarily due to sharply lower natural gas prices in the lower 48 states, which account for nearly half of the company’s production. Going forward, ConocoPhillips raised production guidance for Q4 to 1.99 million to 2.03 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. 

For FY2024, which ended in December 2024, analysts expect COP to report a 12.9% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS to $7.64. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It surpassed Wall Street’s earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters while missing on two other occasions.

COP stock has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating overall. Among the 28 analysts covering the stock, 23 recommend “Strong Buy,” two advise “Moderate Buy,” and three suggest a “Hold” rating.

This configuration is slightly more bullish than a month ago, with 22 “Strong Buy” ratings.

On Jan. 23, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) analyst John Freeman raised ConocoPhillips' price target to $157 from $148 while maintaining a “Strong Buy” rating. Freeman noted that while the fourth quarter was underwhelming in terms of stock performance, it has positioned the Exploration and Production sector favorably for the new year. 

The mean price target of $132.69 suggests a potential upside of 31.9%. Meanwhile, the Street-high target of $165 represents a premium of 64% to current price levels.